2021-01-30Impression of Exhisting World Conditions on Future of Iran Oil Assessed at IPECTEHRAN (NIOC) _ The Impact of Global Conditions on the Future of Iran's Oil and Energy was examined on the first day of the 6th Iran Petroleum and Energy Congress (IPEC).
Amir Hossein Zamaninia, Deputy Minister of Petroleum for International Affairs and Trading, chaired a specialized panel, which was held on Tuesday, January 26, 2021, in the presence of representatives of the Ministry of Petroleum, Energy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Contact with Mohammad Sanousi Barkindo, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and Massoud Nili, Dean of the School of Management and Economics and a member of the faculty of Sharif University of Technology, was not established due to technical problems.
Assistant Secretary-General and Director General for Asia-Pacific at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Reza Zabib noted that in the economic competition of great powers, China is approaching the world's first economic position, relying on production capacity, and this gradual change of position will be possible as of 2030, considering various scenarios. He added: "A review of crude oil consumption figures in China shows that in a 30-year period ending in 2019, China's annual crude oil consumption growth was about 6 percent, while in the decade ending 2019, this growth was decreased to 3.7%.
According to Mr. Zabib, statistics show that China's oil production in 2019 and 2020 was slightly more than 4 million barrels per day and the country's imports were about 11 million barrels per day. China's demand horizon in various models for 2030 to 2040 will increase in a limited fashion and less than one million barrels per day, so although China's crude oil consumption has always been on the rise, its acceleration has been and will be slow.
The Assistant Secretary of Ministry of Foreign Affairs continued: "This is while in the case of gas, the situation is completely different. Annual demand growth in the Chinese gas market from 1990 to 2000 was more than 3.1 percent and the average annual growth between 2000 and 2019 was 13 percent. China's gas consumption in 2019 reached about 300 billion cubic meters, half of which was imported.”
Zabib stated: “Crude oil consumption in China will have a downward trend after 2030. In analyzing the reasons for this trend, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that according to the current plan, the share of transportation in crude oil consumption in China will increase from 80% in 2020 to 52% in 2050.”
"There is potential in the Chinese gas market and we should not expect too much from the Chinese crude oil market," he said. "Exports of crude oil to China from physical exports will become a new kind of export, and this is a great potential for Iran to transport crude oil to China by converting it into a product.”
Iran's Potential Capacity to Enter Indian Market
Suleiman Ghasemiyan, head of economic affairs at the Ministry of Petroleum's Asia-Africa-Pacific Directorate, held another speech during the panel.
The energy sector has made significant gains over all developing countries over the past two decades, he said. Access to electricity for 750 million people, a 20% reduction in energy intensity, reforms in the pricing system of energy carriers, major reforms in the development of fields have been among the important developments in India’s oil and gas sector.
He noted that India has a decisive role in the global oil market and is an important player. “India is the third largest consumer of energy, the third largest importer of oil, the fourth largest importer of energy, the fourth largest refiner and the third largest producer of electricity in the world.”
Ghasemian underlined the change in India's primary energy mix as the country's energy outlook, saying: "According to recent studies, the share of primary energy in India will increase from the current 10% to 15% by 2030 and the share of oil and coal in the country's energy mix will be reduced."
"According to forecasts, India will have the second and first growth in energy demand in the two decades leading up to 2030 and 2040, respectively," said the official.
He pointed out that India's crude oil demand will increase by 3.7 million barrels per day by 2040 and gas demand by 370 million cubic meters per day, which is a significant figure for producers.
"India is a potential market for oil and gas that should be exploited.”
At the end of this specialized panel, Amir Hossein Zamaninia read Mr. Barkindo's speech, which was not presented due to connectivity problems.